Big 12 Tournament

[Andy]

Sorry for the late post. Was finishing up looking up some stats.

Anyway, first of all, I put down 3 units to win 1.5 units on kansas to win the tournament. I don't think you'll see a ml better than -200 on kansas at any point during the tournament, so I like this play. that, and i'll be shocked if they go down, kansas is the best team in the nation.

Now, some stats.
Big 12 1st round games: Dogs ATS 27-24 (52.9%)
2nd round: Dogs ATS 29-18-5 (61.7%)
3rd round: Favorites ATS 15-11 (57.7%)
Champ game: Favs ATS 7-6 (53.8%)

1st Round plays:
COLORADO PK .5 unit LOSER
the favorite in the 8-9 game is 11-2 SU. cu a slight fav on some sites. this game is statistically a tossup and cu just won in boulder which could make it harder for them to turnaround and win again. that said, colorado i've liked all season, i can see real progress with what they are doing as a team (won final 3 conf games). also cu needs this game to "qualify" for the NIT. tech comes in on a 7 game losing streak and got blown out in 3 of last 4. if cu can hold their on on the glass and get to the line where they shoot awesome, they should win.

PARLAY MIZZOU ML/OKLA ST ML 1.8 units to win 1 unit LOSER
in the 5-12 game, the fav is 11-1 SU
in the 7-10 game, the fav is 9-4 SU
Mizzou has a huge matchup adv against nebraska, they ran them out of the gym in both matchups this year. okla st is a lot more interesting, they embarrased ou in their last game and lost in ot at ou. okla st prob needs to win to completely lock up their tourney bid. ou has lost 8 straight (most by DD), their season is all but over. ou plays no def. might stay close, but would be shocked if okla st lost.

IOWA ST +9 .5 unit WINNER
in the 6-11 game, the fav is 10-3 SU, but of all the 1st day games, this game has offered the most "big" upsets. iowa st plays teams close no matter the competition. usually they lose, but maybe the win at KSU to close the season gives them more confidence. texas has been dysfunctional ever since they reached #1. a team of parts with no cohesiveness. ISU has a very underated def that can frustrate you. and with brackins and gilstrap, talent that could play for any team, i like their chances at the cover.

[Andy]

eh 1-2 today no thanks to mizzou shitting the bed. iowa st...so clutch when it comes to the big meaningless buckets to close out games lol.

tmorrow is dog day in big 12. i'll probably be on every dog. there is an adv to having played the day before because u get the familiarity with the gym and the other team hasn't played for a number of days they usually come out kinda flat. also the "bye" teams are already all tourney locks so they dont have a great deal to play for. should get some good lines.

[ap3265]

I like the Kansas play alot. Thats not bad odds b/c I don't see them getting beat esepcially on a neutral court.

[Andy]

I like the Kansas play alot. Thats not bad odds b/c I don't see them getting beat esepcially on a neutral court.

5dimes reopened new odds on the big 12 tournament winner and kansas is at -190 now....

[Andy]

Plays for today's 2nd round:

TEX TECH +17.5 .5 unit

OKLA ST +5

waiting on the other lines

[Andy]

easy winner on tex tech

adding:
NEBRASKA 1ST HALF +4@-105 .5 unit

[CaptainFurFace]

Do you think the Texas Baylor line is fishy? A pick?

Baylor is 2-0 this season vs TX and it seems like Texas has not put together a complete game in a loooong time.

Maybe Baylor's motivation is not as strong as Texas'?

Any clues boys?

Let's make it a March to remember!

thanks.

[Andy]

fukin kill me nebr comes back and covers the game after losing the 1st half. i rarely play 1st halves too but i've been studying them and during the big 12 season the first half dogs have done a lot better than the game dogs. thought this looked like a good spot for that play. oh well.

so far 2-3 -1.8 units in the big 12 tourney. got the okla st game tonight and the kansas tourney prop still pending.

[Andy]

Do you think the Texas Baylor line is fishy? A pick?

Baylor is 2-0 this season vs TX and it seems like Texas has not put together a complete game in a loooong time.

Maybe Baylor's motivation is not as strong as Texas'?

Any clues boys?

Let's make it a March to remember!

thanks.

very difficult game, definitely a pk. yesterday when tech played cu and they had played just the prior saturday, there was a stat given that the opposite outcome had occured every time that situation had come up in the big 12 tourney. so texas would have the nod there. plus, history is the team with the bye has not done well ATS on the first day they play. so another nod to texas. all that said, baylor really looks like a great play here at the end of the season heading into the ncaa's. great guard play, a monster down low with udoh, the zone def, they are gonna be a tough out for anyone. in watching texas play yesterday, it was nice to see pittman finally really show up and play well. plus james continues to be one of the best players in the country. texas is banged up, but i really think they will want this one badly. I would lean to texas if you are to make a play. i'm not sure yet if i will, maybe another .5 unit play for me.

GL whatever you choose to do.

[Andy]

Added:

TEXAS PK .5 unit

[Andy]

doin pretty crappy. conf tourney play can be difficult to bet.

2-5 -3.5 units

[Andy]

kansas ML 5 units to win 2 units

basically all in on kansas to get back to even for the tournament.

Big 12 Conf Champ Favorites are 11-2 SU

while this is an easy play for me personally, i do believe kansas will be better rested and have more energy for this game because in their 2 wins they didnt have to work as hard, certainly not like what K-State put on the floor last night. K-State may want this more, but our bigs just dont matchup in this game. they get into foul trouble too easily against teams that can match us inside and certainly cole aldridge is the main reason. he is the reason ku is the best team in the nation. collins and henry continue to play well outside of late, i dont know if pullen/clemente can be hot for a 3rd straight night. hey i'll be thrilled if K-State wins, but i dont see it.

[xyzky]

I was thinking Kansas ML as well...

[xyzky]

kansas ML 5 units to win 2 units

[Andy]

Anyway, first of all, I put down 3 units to win 1.5 units on kansas to win the tournament. I don't think you'll see a ml better than -200 on kansas at any point during the tournament, so I like this play. that, and i'll be shocked if they go down, kansas is the best team in the nation.

kansas ML 5 units to win 2 units

4-5 even money for the tournament....

[xyzky]

Andy:
I think K-State will make a run in the trny, but, they dont have the makeup for a overall winner....Kansas looks like they are the real deal this year in a down trny.